As brands grow, demand planning evolves from a monthly or batch-based spreadsheet chore into a reality that can make or break a fiscal quarter. With sales channels multiplying, supply chains still shaky, and consumer behavior moving fast, your ops need to be nimble even when you don’t have perfect data.
Following are 7 steps you can take to secure your supply chain.
Step 1: Get Granular With Your Forecasting
Forget historical averages. They’re too blunt. You need to understand demand by SKU, channel, geography, and time period. “Brand X will sell 1,000 units next month,” isn’t enough. Think:
“Brand X 12oz will sell 400 units through grocery, 200 through e-comm, and 150 through club—mostly in the Northeast.”
That level of detail lets you plan for everything from restocks to influencer pulls to spoilage write-offs. It also helps you spot what’s predictable (and what’s not). Stable best-sellers? Use classic forecasting models. Seasonal or volatile SKUs? Different playbook. New launches or discontinued items? They need their own lane entirely.
Try grouping products by forecastability, not just revenue. Your “A” items should be the ones you can confidently plan for—even if they’re not your top sellers.
Step 2: Connect Your Data Pipes
Most early-stage brands have data scattered across ERPs, retailer portals, Google Sheets, and Slack messages. It’s messy, but the sooner you start connecting those dots, the better your forecasts will be.
- If you can, set up direct data feeds from your key retail partners: POS data, on-hand inventory, and promo lift.
- Syndicated data from Nielsen or SPINS is useful, but only if it helps you make decisions (like tracking category growth or promo timing).
- Most importantly: build a feedback loop with your sales team. They’ll often notice patterns weeks before they show up in a dashboard.
Step 3: Don’t Let Promotions Derail You
Promos can drive 15–25% of your revenue, but they’re notoriously hard to forecast.
Dig into past performance by channel, product, and timing. A 20% discount at Target isn’t the same as one at Whole Foods. Don’t just assume a flat “lift”. If you haven’t done it before, find some comparables.
Link your promo calendar directly to inventory planning. And watch out for cannibalization—discounting a hero SKU can tank velocity on others if you’re not careful.
Step 4: Plan With Supply Chain Realities
Your demand plan means nothing if your ops team can’t deliver on it.
Get a sense of your lead times and how much they actually vary. Flag material or packaging constraints that could bottleneck multiple products. And be intentional about where your production capacity goes. Sometimes it’s smarter to run the high-margin item, even if the forecast says otherwise. When you have an incomplete picture
Step 5: Plan by Channel, Not Just Product
Every sales channel has its own quirks.
- Retail/Wholesale: Know how each retailer’s inventory systems work. If they use auto-replenishment, learn the triggers.
- E-commerce: Expect volatility, higher returns, and different seasonal curves.
- Club stores: They buy in bulk but order less often. Don’t let their inconsistency throw off your forecast.
Step 6: Get Smart About Inventory
The goal isn’t “don’t stock out.” It’s “right product, right place, right time.”
- Set service levels based on how critical the product is to your business. A hero SKU might need 98% service levels, while a seasonal flavor can run at 90% to free up cash.
- Use safety stocks that flex based on how reliable your supply is.
- Store fast movers closer to customers; slower movers can live in central DCs.
Step 7: Invest in Tools That Work for You
You don’t need enterprise software, but you do need tools that can grow with you and:
- Handle multiple forecasting methods (and tell you which one works best for each SKU),
- Bring in all the relevant signals from procurement, order volume, inventory, other 3rd parties (WMS, etc)
- And make it easy for your team to collaborate and flag issues in real time.
TLDR
In 2025, great demand planning is actually more about flexibility than perfection. Somehow there will always be “unprecedented” events that derail something along the way. Build systems that let you adapt fast, so you aren’t flying blind. The brands that win will be the ones that make data-informed decisions, faster, even when things change.
If you’re looking to improve your demand planning in 2025, check out Doss. Doss is the first Adaptive Resource Platform (ARP) built for supply chain and operations teams. DossARP connects the dots across planning, inventory, orders, and procurement giving CPG brands full visibility, without needing to rip out their ERP.